Leiden, Netherlands, 9 October 2026 – Labour shortages and skills mismatches have intensified across the European Union since 2021 as technological change, demographic shifts and successive economic shocks reshape demand for workers and skills, with the pressures falling unevenly across regions and occupations, a new SkiLMeeT report shows.
The report, “Indicators to measure past, current and forecasted skill shortages and mismatches”, by Ludivine Martin and Michal Burzynski of the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), develops a comprehensive occupation-level framework and dataset to examine labour shortages, skills, and skills mismatches across Europe over time.
Rather than relying on a single measure, the study combines indicators covering labour shortages, workers’ skills, perceived over- and under-skilling, hourly wages, working hours and employment growth. It also uses a forecasting model to examine how different automation and education scenarios could reshape employment across Europe by 2033.
The authors find that labour shortages, which were relatively limited in much of Europe before 2019, became more pronounced following the COVID-19 pandemic. Shortages are most visible in highly skilled occupations, particularly professionals and technicians, and are strongest in Nordic countries and parts of Western Europe. Eastern and Southern Europe show more moderate labour market tensions, often concentrated in specific occupations or countries.
The report also identifies growing mismatches between workers’ skills and the jobs they perform. Between 2010 and 2024, the share of workers reporting that they had more skills than their jobs required generally increased across Europe. Under-skilling, by contrast, shows no common European trend, declining in some occupations and countries while persisting or increasing in others.
The findings show that labour shortages and skills mismatches can coexist, as employers struggle to recruit workers for particular occupations while skills available elsewhere in the workforce are not fully used.
“Europe does not face one single skills shortage problem, and there is no single solution” said Ludivine Martin, co-author of the report and researcher at LISER. “Our indicators help distinguish between recruitment pressures, skills mismatches and weaker skill use.”
The report points to a growing divide in digital skills. ICT skills have improved overall, especially among high-skilled occupations, but progress is uneven. Intermediate and low-skilled workers are more likely to lag behind, with advanced ICT skills remaining weak or declining in several occupational groups. This points to the importance of upskilling policies that reach workers beyond the most skilled occupations.
Automation and education could reshape employment by 2033
Looking ahead, the report models employment in 2033 under nine scenarios combining different levels of automation and higher-education attainment.
The projections suggest that automation could reinforce existing labour market polarisation. Occupations more exposed to technological substitution tend to experience employment losses, while occupations that complement digital technologies generally perform better. Higher levels of educational attainment improve employment outcomes in many of the scenarios, although the effects differ substantially between countries and occupational groups.
Nordic countries appear comparatively well positioned to benefit from automation because of their high levels of human capital, digital adoption and capacity for skill adaptation. Eastern and Southern European countries show more heterogeneous outcomes, highlighting the importance of national economic structures and education and training systems.
“Automation does not affect all jobs in the same way” said Michal Burzynski, co-author of the report and researcher at LISER. “The projections underline the importance of education and training policies in determining whether automation leads mainly to job displacement or to new opportunities.”
Ludivine Martin and Michal Burzynski (2026). Indicators to measure past, current and forecasted skill shortages and mismatches, SkiLMeeT Deliverable D3.4.
Read the report here.
